On March 12th, it was reported that Al-Qaeda's online internet supporters were lashing out at the Taliban and suggesting that they are "straying from the path of global jihad". And what is it that the Taliban are guilty of? Well, Taliban leader Mullah Omar issued a statement suggesting that the Taliban are seeking better relations with the world, and that it even sympathizes with Shiite Iran. According to the Al-Qaeda supporters, this is the worst thing that has ever happened, and one even said, "the disaster of defending the (Iranian) regime is on par with the Crusaders in Afghanistan and Iraq."
Of course, there is no indication that Al-Qaeda's chat room supporters have any direct links with the leadership of Al-Qaeda. The Taliban on the other hand, were believed to have very close ties to Al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden, at least until very recently. So, the question that begs to be asked then, is: Why this statement from the Taliban, and what does it portend?
I believe it suggests that a rift may have developed between Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Such an openly flagrant 'policy shift' would be sure to attract criticism, and would not have been done lightly. But what would cause such a rift? For that we need to review some recent articles to set the stage...
First, consider the stories coming out of Iraq. Though not fully defeated, Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) has been pushed out of large swaths of territory where it was once firmly entrenched. Media stories about 'The Anbar Awakening' and 'Concerned Local Citizen' groups (now referred to as the 'Sons of Iraq') have been numerous. Al-Qaeda's Sunni brethren in Iraq have turned against AQI, primarily because of their violence against fellow Sunnis and their brutally violent form of Sharia justice. We reported that AQI leaders had admitted that they were in panic and fear. In a December 2007 audiotape message, Bin Laden was showing signs of fear that he was losing in Iraq. In October, he even admitted mistakes had been made in Iraq while trying to bolster the insurgency there, all to no avail.
On the flip side, there have also been plenty of stories coming out of Iraq about Sunnis and Shiites reaching reconciliation on various issues. Shiites have begun to trust Sunnis and vice versa. Violence went down steadily. Life started returning to normal in many parts of Iraq. Refugees who fled the violence started returning home. In general, the Iraqi people are happy that Al-Qaeda is gone.
Next, consider that a recent poll taken in Pakistan found that sympathy for Al-Qaeda and the Taliban has dropped sharply in recent months. (See VAT article HERE.) The decline in pro-Taliban & pro-Qaeda sentiment is attributed in part to a wave of violence in Pakistan that was blamed on Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. The decline may also be due in part to their appearance of weakness and failure, stemming from the defeats they suffered in Iraq.
Then, consider that Darool-Uloom Deoband, a radical Muslim seminary that supposedly inspired the Taliban denounced terrorism as an unpardonable sin in late February.
Consider that Sayyid Imam al-Sharif (once a mentor to Ayman al-Zawahiri) recently published a book -- 'Rationalizations on Jihad in Egypt and the World' -- in which he argues that the use of violence to overthrow Islamic governments is religiously unlawful and practically harmful. He also recommends the formation of a special Islamic court to try Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri.
Zawahiri's response to al-Sharif was a book of his own -- 'A Treatise Exonerating the Nation of the Pen and the Sword from the Blemish of the Accusation of Weakness and Fatigue'. MEMRI -- Middle East Media Research Institute -- had this to say about Zawahiri's book...
Al-Qaeda's decision to publish such a work is strong evidence that it is deeply worried that radical Islamists could be influenced by Sayyed Imam (to) abandon the jihad. Al-Zawahiri's Treatise is actually a sharp about-face for Al-Qaeda; up until this point, it had studiously ignored the substantive arguments put forward by Sayyed Imam, and had simply asserted that the Egyptian security services had tortured Imam into writing the book, and that it thus did not merit serious discussion. Hence, the Treatise is a tacit admission that Al-Qaeda is facing an unprecedented ideological challenge.
Also consider that Egyptian cleric Yusuf al-Qaradawi, who is also a preacher on the Arab satellite television network Al Jazeera, has called on al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden to surrender. "I ask Osama bin Laden to surrender and to hand himself over to an international tribunal in order to respond to the charge that he ordered the attacks of September 11," said al-Qaradawi in an interview with the Arab newspaper al-Sharq al-Awsat.
The gist of all these stories of course, is that Al-Qaeda is losing influence in the Muslim world, while terrorism and violence (against Muslims at any rate) is being rejected. The likely reason for this growing trend is that Al-Qaeda is now being viewed among prominent Muslims as a failure. Al-Qaeda was not being rejected when it used coordinated terror attacks against western targets. But it is being rejecting now, when the vast majority of attacks by Al-Qaeda appear to be nothing more than indiscriminate bombings against Muslim civilians. Al-Qaeda in Iraq was not being rejected when the targets of their violence were American soldiers. But it was rejected when the targets of their violence became fellow Sunnis.
Given this background then, it would not be difficult to imagine that as influential Muslims around the world have begun to distance themselves from Al-Qaeda, the Taliban are simply joining that movement. Assuming that is the case, then there may indeed be a rift forming between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda resulting from Al-Qaeda's growing loss of influence and prestige in the Islamic world.
Or, it may strictly be a financial matter. With its loss of influence, Al-Qaeda may be losing financial support. The Taliban may see Al-Qaeda as a dying organization. It is quite possible then that the statement from Mullah Omar is a preliminary gesture toward the opening of relations with Tehran in an effort to create a new partnership for their on-going quest to try and regain control of Afghanistan.
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